• Abhijit Maheswari

Has our economy entered a growth period ? E-way bills has some answers

Yes, we are in a growth phase going by e way bills data. GST Jan 2021 broke the Dec 2020 record of largest GST collections.

We have reached pre-covid levels around Sept 2020 last year. Since then we are in growth phase; last 5 months consistently crossing the 1 lakh crores rupees mark.

But what is e way bills ?

E way bills are electronically generated bills for movement of goods within states and across states. This was introduced along with the GST reforms.

Last released data shows the December month records, when both asset value and number of e way bills are at an all time high. If you follow the last couple of months, you will notice that we have been leveled with pre-covid bills. Unless we have a new pandemic or hit by another black swan event or covid returns back, we should be at the least be at pre-covid levels.

Why I think India will continue to expand its economy ?

We can afford to be little optimistic. There are various reasons for us to break past our old trajectory. Every country will chart its own path post-covid. Countries which have been in fire-fighting mode because of internal politics, economics and other crisis and consequently failed to do critical reforms in this period have missed a very important window. I think India have used this crisis well. Despite varied, eager and forceful voice from different quaters, we kept the eye on the ball. The ball, perhaps is a USD 5 trillion economy.

You cannot reach there without reforms. India is one of the most difficult place to built consensus. You can find fault with the best of reform measures. Because you will always find 5% (7 to 8 Million people) opposed to something. These voice is louder but there is another voice, the majority voice which wants and need reforms. But they are often quite. The government of the days should also pay heed to this voice. If certain decision needs to be made for the larger interest, for long term interest, it should be pursued at all cost. If you have followed government's policy directions over last year, one will find the decisions have part of structure. Because of these reforms, we will be able to ride higher.

Does e-way bills also tell a picture of the states ?

Compare the charts of Bihar with Gujarat. Hint : Focus on the gap between orange and green line and its positions. Industrialized states follow a different path than consumption states.

E-way asset values (crores) by States

E-way bills (numbers) by States

Answering few questions on E way bills

Which states have the highest number of suppliers for Intra state supplies?

In 2020, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are top 5 states with respect to number of suppliers

Which states have the highest number of suppliers for Inter state inward supplies?

In 2020, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Delhi, Tamil Nadu are top 5 states respectively

Which states have the highest number of suppliers for Inter state inward supplies?

Gujarat, Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu are top 5 states respectively in 2020

Which states are most volatile in Inter State Outward Supplies ?

Delhi, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Uttar pradesh has the highest standard deviation

Which states are least volatile in Inter State Outward Supplies ?

Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Goa and Odhisha are the least volatility.

Which states are most volatile Intra state supplies ?

Puducherry, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi, Haryana have the highest standard deviations under intra state supplies

Which states are least volatile in Intra state supplies ?

Odisha, Andra Pradesh, Assam, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh are least volatile states with respect to Intra state supplies